MBS Day Ahead: What Happens If Bonds Break This Ceiling? (Philosophical Discussion on Technicals)

The ratings agencies gave AAA and investment-grade ratings to MBS bonds (Mortgage Backed Securities) issued by Fannie and Freddie. The bonds were risky, but the implicit guarantee of the government made up for that. The implicit guarantee was a sophisticated (and correct) prediction by most analysts.

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For those paying any sort of attention to trading levels in bond markets over the past few weeks, it’s hard to miss the super narrow range between 2.825 and 2.885 in 10yr yields. That’s been perfectly intact since June 27th, and was broken for the first time in today’s overnight session.

MBS Day Ahead: What Happens If Bonds Break This Ceiling? (Philosophical Discussion on Technicals) Thanks to lower mortgage rates, 550K homeowners could save by refinancing Interested in refinancing your mortgage?

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Accrued Interest I oversee taxable bond trading for a small investment management firm. Opinions expressed on this website may not reflect the opinions of my employers. Strategies described here should not be taken as advice, and may not be the strategies being used for my clients.

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds at Risk of Confirming Death of positive 2014 trend. september 15, 2014. As Treasury yields and mortgage rates spiraled rapidly higher over the past two weeks, 2014’s steady trend toward lower rates quickly strayed into vulnerable territory. Specifically, 10yr yields lost more ground, more quickly than at any other time this year.

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