MBS RECAP: Late December Liquidity Causing Volatility

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The largest change in the market occurred in December and was perhaps the most. The market fell-off and increased volatility was not credit driven, rather it was technical and liquidity driven..

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prepayments on loans and MBS to. may also cause the fair market value of our investment to decline if real estate values decline over the extended period. In extreme situations, we may be forced to.

developed market liquidity conditions, likely to slowly advance in 2018, will likely present a headwind. The consensus outlook for 2018 gross domestic product growth in emerging markets as of late December was about 5%, easily surpassing the approximately 2.5% growth outlook for developed markets. In addition, the dispersion

In fact, last week’s recap touched on this topic in discussing the waning liquidity heading into the end of the year (i.e. last week was characterized as "last call" for active trading). A highly liquid marketplace is a bustling marketplace. Late December sees the bustle die down among bond traders.

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Yield spreads between agency MBS and credit sectors have widened from record lows in 2018 but have still not returned to longer-term historical averages, indicating that agency MBS could provide value relative to risk assets. Within the agency MBS sector, we believe shorter-duration MBS with higher coupons could offer the best relative value.

 · Look for volatility if the promised tax cut is meaningfully smaller, doesn’t materialize or is overly delayed. The markets are showing signs of a near term top again as we saw in mid-December. This suggests another period of consolidation such as December 9 until February 13, or.

MBS RECAP: Late December liquidity causing volatility dec 18 2017, 5:27PM Last Friday I said that bond traders had "had enough" when it came to reacting to every little tax bill headline.

However, the period ending balance was slightly lower as of December 31st at 1.7 billion. TBA dollar roll implied financing specialness moderated somewhat late. volatility is going to be relatively.